Credit Where it's Due...

Major League Baseball
My apologies for my long absence.


I suppose that's what working on a Master's Thesis does to a person. But now that that terrible chore is complete, it's time to return to the blog.


As I return to the blog I have an observation. It's an observation on the curse of playing in a small market. Well, "curse" might be a strong word. For one fan base the curse is quite a blessing.


Last night the Philadelphia Phillies played the Washington Nationals with Cole Hamels on the hill for Philadelphia. 

Cole Hamels has been great for
the Phillies despite the team
being in last place

Plenty of attention was paid to the game because of the possibility of repercussions from the Hamels vs. Harper incident from a few weeks ago. Anyone who tuned in for a chance at repercussions instead was treated to a terrific pitching display. Hamels was great. He went eight innings, gave up four hits, zero runs, walked three and struck out eight.


An accumulation of outings like this has garnered a lot of attention for Cole Hamels and he has the numbers to back it up. Today ESPN radio was referring to Hamels as one of, if not the, best pitcher in MLB right now. 


This is what happens when you play in a small market. If Hamels is the best pitcher in MLB, let's take a look at his numbers against another pitcher's in a blind resume.


Pitcher A: 62.1 IP, 2.17 ERA, 50 H, 15 ER, 13 BB, 66 SO, 1.01 WHIP, 7-1 record.
Pitcher B: 59.1 IP, 1.97 ERA, 55 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 38 SO, 1.13 WHIP, 5-1 record.


Can you guess which pitcher is Cole Hamels? Which pitcher is the best pitcher going in MLB? Maybe you can't really tell the difference. Maybe that's my point.


Pitcher A is Cole Hamels, Pitcher B is Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto.


When I heard Hamels referred to as "the best pitcher in MLB" I, as a true homer, thought, "Hey! Cueto is better than Hamels!" Well, turns out I was close to right. In fact I've found the two are basically indistinguishable. There are so factors that make Hamels appear to be superior. Specifically its his nearly double number of strikeouts with 66 versus Cueto's 38. Plus, Cueto's last two outings have been his worst of the young season whilst Hamels pitched a gem last night (he did give up six hits and three runs against Boston on Friday in a Phillies win). 

As is true of all small market fans,
Reds fans should be happy Cueto's
numbers have not attracted more attention

The major point is, this is a bigger commentary on what it means to play in a small market. I've already admitted to being a Reds homer, but I'd go so far as to say that Cueto was the most underrated pitcher in MLB last season. With Hamels and Cueto more or less indistinguishable on the stat line Hamels is the best pitcher in MLB and Cueto is only known to Reds fans and fantasy baseball players. However, those who would call themselves Reds fans should consider Cueto's no-credit curse as a true blessing. With the big teams, specifically the Yankees and Red Sox struggling, it's good that Cueto has a small market blanket covering his ace stuff. 


The point for Reds fans is that as they've been clamoring for a true Ace for the past three or four seasons is that one may finally appearing right before their eyes.


More to Come,
XoXo
-Joshua

Welcome to the Jungle

NFL Football - Cincinnati Bengals
Originally, I considered naming this post "The Tragedy of the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals", basically because it sounds more dramatic. But the truth is, it isn't a tragedy, not really anyway. What this season is for the Bengals, more than anything, is exactly what we thought it would be.


Well, those of us who are realistic. Realistic people being those of us who didn't start out this season saying the Bengals would be 0-16 or saying that the Bengals were going to the Super Bowl at 6-2. I began the season saying the Bengals would finish 9-7, when they were 6-2 I said they would finish 9-7, when they lost 4 of 5 heading into this weekend I said they would finish 9-7. 

Andy Dalton and the Bengals might
be just short of the playoffs at 9-7, if that is their
final record.

If there is tragedy to this season it is that 9-7 isn't going to equal playoffs, at least it looks that way with the Bengals needing to win a tricky game against a 7-7 Arizona team and then defeat the Ravens who will probably being playing for a shot at the AFC's #1 seed on New Year's Day. Not only so, but the Jets also need to lose to either the Giants or the Dolphins. Both of those games are losable for the Jets, but New York and Miami have been so inconsistent that they are equally winnable.


The real question is, what do we know about the Bengals headed for the last two games of the regular season? What has this season taught us?


1. Rookies can have success
This hasn't been all the Bengals doing. Cam Newton in Carolina and Christian Ponder in Minnesota have added to Andy Dalton's reality that in this incarnation of the NFL, rookie QBs can win now. The Bengals have added their own flavor to the rookie phenomenon, though, as they also have seen great success with rookie Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden and rookie WR A.J. Green, who appears to be on pace to be one of the next great NFL wide receivers. 

Jay Gruden's hiring as Offensive
Coordinator wasn't exciting, but has
been successful

This has, however, turned out exactly as it should in week 15. Andy, AJ and Jay surprised a lot of teams through the first 8-10 weeks of the season but now that we are deep in and other teams have more film on this trio it becomes easier to plan for them. This is nothing they've done wrong, it's just how the NFL works. Plus, we've begun to see a little Tim Tebow in Dalton and Gruden. What I mean by that is that the limitations of having a rookie QB have become more evident. It isn't that Dalton has played poorly, in fact he has played very well. It is that a young QB makes you limited, partly because he's still experiencing the NFL and adjusting and partly because no coordinator, particularly a rookie coordinator is going to open up the play book for a rookie in the depths of a wild card chase.


No one's fault, it's just how the NFL works.


2. The Bengals need a consistent running back.
The limitations of a rookie QB are only exacerbated when your running game is wildly inconsistent. That is the state of Cedric Benson and the Bengals. If you follow the blog, you know that I have never been crazy about Benson, I had hoped the Bengals would look into some free agent running backs in the off season and was floored when I found out they resigned Benson a day before Ahmad Bradshaw was supposed to come for a free agent visit. 

2012 will be Benson's
8th NFL season, a long
career for a RB in this era

Benson's supporters will surely say that he is about to eclipse 1,000 yards on the season so the decision to bring him back was a good one. However, it is Benson's lack of consistency that makes me question him. He will amass 1,000 yards (well, probably, he's 41 shy) but the way he has done it has been ugly. Going down his game log his yards spike and dip, in the last six games - 57, 41, 106, 52, 91, 76 with only 3 TDs to show for it. This inconsistency isn't good for the Bengals and the type of offense they are trying to run. Now, you can argue that this is also just how the NFL works and I understand that the RB position has changed over the last five years but what about the eye-test on Benson? When it's 3rd and 4 and the Bengals come out in a running formation, how confident do you feel that Benson is going to get the 1st down? 

Do the Bengals go with the
speed of LaMichael James
or power of Trent Richardson?

With a complete back like Alabama's Trent Richardson, a power back like Wisconsin's Monte Ball and a speedster like Oregon's LaMichael James (reportedly) entering the draft, I don't know how the Bengals can't be considering where they are heading with Benson. I'm not saying get rid of him, he could be a great two-back, but in this NFL you don't keep piling responsibility onto an 8th year, inconsistent running back; the RB shelf life is short and you have to get younger when you can.


3. Champs stay healthy
Is there much else to say? Sports commentators will always tell you that often it is not the best but rather the healthiest team that wins a championship. The Bengals have won only two of their last six games but that stretch has a seen a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball. You can't win football games if all of your best players aren't playing and practicing, that just the truth. Not an excuse but a reason. I don't know how a team "figures out" how to stay healthy, but if it's possible, that is what the Bengals will need next season.


4. Roll the Wide Receiver dice?

Justin Blackmon looks good in
black and orange, will the
Bengals have a chance to pair
him with AJ Green?

Along with the Bengals' RB issues there is a need for another true WR. The transcendence of AJ Green has only made it more apparent how truly lacking the rest of the corp is. Jordan Shipley's return to the slot next season will help this, but the Bengals need a true #2 WR to balance this offense and create the consistency that is hampering it right now. Currently there are three WRs in Scout's INC. top 32, the highest of which is Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon. Blackmon has been fairly prolific with only two games where he has less that 70 yards receiving this season and none with less that 50. Add to that only two games without a touchdown. This type of consistency might be what the Bengals need to pair with Green for to form an explosive offense. (say that in your head like a call, "Dalton under center, Blackmon and Shipley to the left Green to the right, Gresham is the tight-end, James the single back"...scary...)

Is DeSean Jackson a smart
move or a big risk?

The "rolling of the dice" comes when remembering that it is apparent that Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson will not be returning to Philadelphia next season. If Jackson hits the free agent market I think the Bengals need to at least bring him in for an interview to see where his head is at. As I have said in the past, the Bengals cannot afford to bring in a negative influence on Dalton and Green but if Jackson's poor performances and attitude have only been a result of the negativity in Philadelphia and he is willing to renew his work ethic in Cincinnati, he could flourish. Jackson is a big "if" and perhaps even a risk. But the Bengals have had a fairly successful track record of being the haven for want-away players so they might consider adding his skills to the offense.


Blackmon sounds like a better move, brining in another rookie and inducting him into the Gruden-Dalton-Green club before he has a chance to pick up bad habits elsewhere. However, Blackmon will go high in the draft and may be out of the Bengals reach, especially because the RB spot is a much bigger concern, opening the door for a Jackson free agent move. Blackmon will also make the offense less experienced instead of more, which is what you always want. However, if the Eagles slap the franchise tag on to trade Jackson that could complicate the move too, there is no reason to trade away the small fortune the Eagles will surely want. 

For those wondering, if the season
ended tomorrow the Bengals would
draft 21st. Scouts Inc lists Arizona St
ILB Vontaze Burfict as their #21 prospect

I realize this is a "next year" post when the Bengals are still in the wild-card chase. However, one place the Bengals need to get better as a franchise is being aware of their faults and having a plan to address them. The Bengals often know their short-comings but do not begin to prepare to fix them until after the season or even after the Super Bowl when other clubs are already at work. I am only keeping an eye on the future while being in the present. And that eye on the future sees only one word with which the Bengals now need to become obsessed; consistency.


More to come,
XoXo
-Joshua


Links:
ESPN NFL Playoff Machine
Current NFL Standings
Scout's Inc. Top 32 Draft Prospects

What Does it Take?

NFL Football
Today, somewhere in Cincinnati, two men, Bengals owner Mike Brown and Head Coach Marvin Lewis stepped to microphones for a press conference. If you've followed the Bengals enough to have listened to one of these press conferences before then you know that you shouldn't feel positive that one is about to take place. Today's conference was no different.

A.J. Green was Cincinnati's first
round draft pick

Just when the common Bengals fan was feeling optimistic. Feeling like the drafting of A.J. Green out of Georgia and Andy Dalton from TCU signaled the beginning of a new era and a solid season ahead. Out comes the owner and head coach to make sure all of those positive feelings were squashed under a display of idiocy that Bengals fans should be used to by now. Have listened to the highlights of the conference, since I was unable to hear the entire thing, I'm left asking the same question I always end up asking, "What does it take to run a NFL franchise?" 


Seriously.

The drafting of Andy Dalton in the
second round was cause for excitement
among Bengals fans

Because if Mike Brown is the example we're going with of what it means to be an NFL owner, it doesn't take a lot. In fact, I'm convinced I could name 100 jobs off the top of my head that are harder, again, if we're saying Mike Brown is what it means to be an NFL owner. At least all 100 of those jobs require some sort of logic, an ability to know right procedures from wrong ones and, hopefully, call for some pride in a person's work. But judging from Mike Brown's example, none of those things, especially pride in the quality of your work are necessary to being an NFL owner. Let's start on the topic I've already been harming since the end of the lockout began approaching: Carson Palmer. 


Today Mike Brown repeatedly referred to Palmer in the past tense, said he was "retired" and that the Bengals "wished him well". That's it. He's gone. 

As of 7/26/11, Carson Palmer
is "retired"

I could go over this again and again and again and again and again and again and again. Mike Brown and the Bengals gain absolutely NOTHING by allowing Palmer to just walk away. Particularly when it's become clear that Palmer's intentions, as explained by ESPN's John Clayton, is to simply bide his time and then, "...he'll come back next year when they're going to be close to the cap after the season, plant his $11.5 million salary on their salary cap and at that point he'll be able to move on..." Brown says that Palmer is walking away from his commitments and he thinks that granting Palmer's wishes would start a chain-reaction of players coming and demanding to be out of Cincinnati. 


Lots of issues there, first, as Ryen Russillo and Lance McAlister pointed out today, it's wrong for Brown to talk about commitments and delivering on promises when he's failed to deliver time and again on his primary promise, to at least attempt to field a winning team. Moreover, Brown thinks he is maintaining the position of authority in this situation, dictating  Palmer's actions, but is apparently to blind by his own stubbornness to see he isn't. As John Clayton outlined above, Palmer is dictating the situation, no matter how much Brown thinks he is. And let's get right down to it, what is the worst thing that will happen if you let Palmer leave? Someone else (like Ochocinco) marches into your office and tells you he wants to leave? Ouch, so terrible. This entire situation is a problem of pride for Brown that is harming the Bengals, I've been in charge of organizations, you know what I've always said from the start? 


Give me people that want to be here. 


Those people I can work with. I'd rather have a roster full of non-superstars who want to work hard and actually be a part of a franchise than who don't. Shouldn't you start looking for that as an NFL franchise? Is Mike Brown afraid that no one wants to be in Cincinnati? Hmmm...interesting concept. Why could that be?


In case you read what I just wrote and thought, "oh, Joshua is right. There's no way Mike Brown can see miss the logic that this Palmer situation exposes. He'll realize he's a bad owner and the mandate to spend 99% of this year's cap will fix him!" 


You're wrong. And I can prove it. 

Bengals owner Mike Brown thought
being called the worst professional sports
franchise was something to laugh about

Because during the press conference, Brown was asked about the ESPN the Magazine article wherein the Bengals were ranked as the worst sports franchise and the Cincinnati Enquirer article, "122 ways to fix the Bengals". What was Brown's response to that? That there must be something wrong with the people at ESPN the Magazine because he could think of more than 122 things that are wrong with the Bengals. And he laughed about it.


AND HE LAUGHED ABOUT IT! 


I GET MAD WHEN I LOSE GAME ON MY XBOX WHICH ISN'T REAL AND THIS MAN IS LAUGHING ABOUT HIS REAL-LIFE MILLIONS OF DOLLAR FRANCHISE BEING RANKED WORST IN SPORTS WHEN THERE'S A BANKRUPT BASEBALL TEAM THAT'S BOUNCING CHECKS OUT THERE! - yes, I'm shouting.


Apparently, you don't even need to care about your NFL team to own one and at this point! I cannot figure out how somebody could care this little about a team's performance. I still hold out this vain hope that maybe Mike Brown will finally get it, especially now, as I said, he has to spend money. But I doubt it.


At the beginning of this whole thing I was really against Carson Palmer and upset that he wanted to leave, but after today's conference, I totally get it. I wouldn't want to play for that either. Should he walk away? No. Should the Bengals trade him? Yes. But still, I get it. So I wish Palmer lots of luck in whatever he does now and lots of luck to all you Bengals fans who are ready to go out on a new team search of your own. 


I wouldn't blame you.


More to come,
XoXo
-Joshua


Links:
122 Ways to Fix the Bengals
John Clayton on the Scott Van Pelt Show