The NASCAR Sprint Cup series returns this Sunday with one of the NASCAR's premier events, the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This race means seven races to go until the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins and today we examine, who need a win the most headed to Indy?
Here's what we can be sure of:
Carl Edwards is a lock for the Chase for the Cup. Mathematically, no one else is. What does that mean? If Jimmie Johnson finishes last in the next seven races he'll plummet to somewhere around 15th, perhaps slightly lower. Yeah, that's going to happen. And even if it did, Jimmie has a win, something only one member of the current 11-20 has.
So, perhaps not mathematically, but practically, Edwards and Johnson are locks for this year's post season. And since we're speaking practically, it's safe to say that the next three drivers, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are safe as well. Kurt Busch's point total should keep him safe while Harvick and Kyle Busch's three wins respectively would keep them safe in 11-20 land because the chances of anyone else in that range landing 2-3 wins in 7 races is extremely low. Our next two, Kenseth and Gordon, could slip out of the top 10 but have two wins each that would automatically qualify them as wild card entries at this stage.
Places 8-20 in the points standings are currently no man's land. If excitement was the intended goal of NASCAR'S point system change for this season, it's going to be successful in the next seven weeks as every race could make a monumental difference in how the final field is set. Which brings us back to the question, who needs it more? Let's examine.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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| Dale Jr. knows he needs a win |
Let us begin where all of NASCAR nation begins when asked who needs a win. Dale Earnhardt Jr's winless streak has now swelled to 112 races, going back three years. Not only does Earnhardt Jr need the win for his confidence his points total needs it as well. He sits at 9th in points and is the only driver in the top 10 without a win to protect his spot in the Chase should he slide into the 11-20 range. Earnhardt's average finish at Indianapolis is 22.2 so this weekend might not be the weekend but Bristol, Richmond and Atlanta are in the next seven and they are statsitcally Dale Jr's three best tracks. Jr is certainly ready for the win, this week on ESPN Radio's Scott Van Pelt Show, Scott offer Earnhardt Jr the choice of a win or automatically qualifying for the Chase and Jr instantly replied, "A win. I want to win."
Tony Stewart
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| Tony Stewart's driver Ryan Newman is currently in the Chase. Tony would love nothing more than both Stewart-Haas cars in the Chase |
Earlier I referred to 8-20 as no man's land and currently, Tony Stewart is in the capitol of no man's land (assuming it has a capitol...checking wikipedia for that...). Stewart has no wins this season and an identical point total to current 10th place holder and last automatic qualifier, Denny Hamlin. What does Hamlin have that Stewart doesn't? You guessed it, one win. So why does that qualify Stewart to be the President of no man's land? Because if ANY of the drivers in the nine spots behind him win a race in the next seven and he doesn't or if ANY of the drivers in the top 10 (other than Dale Jr) slip into 11th-20th without Stewart advancing into the top 10, he's out of the chase. 11th place and no win will probably mean no Chase this season, even if the driver is tied for 10th. Stewart essentially has 11 drivers that could oh-so-easily disqualify him from Championship contention that he must find a way to win or rack up a string of top 5 finishes here on out or the 2002 and 2005 Champion won't have a shot at a third title. However, on the positive side for Stewart two of the next three tracks (Indianapolis and Watkins Glen) are his best statistical tracks so wins could be on the horizon. Plus, he is tied Hamlin, if he finishes one spot ahead of Hamlin this weekend he'll be one point better, that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be good enough to get into the top 10, but the margin between in and out is that thin.
Clint Bowyer
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| For Clint Bowyer it's always so close but so far |
If you thought Tony Stewart was in a precarious situation, take a look at Clint Bowyer. Bowyer's situation is basically the same as Stewart's, out of the top 10, no wins. However, instead of being in a points tie for 10th, Bowyer sits all alone in 12th, 29 points back of Stewart. Those 29 points comprise the largest gap between two competitors in the entire top 20. For those you of paying attention, 29 points is the difference between 1st and 30th in a given race, so that's quite a margin to make up. Bowyer has always seemed like that driver loaded with potential who can't put it all together and right now, it still feels like a Championship run for Bowyer and the 33 team is a stretch. The only way to make that run a reality would be a win, which would both qualify Bowyer as the highest wild card driver but would also help him close the gap on the Hamlin/Stewart tie. As far as what's to come, Indianapolis and Richmond are two of his best tracks but the schedule giveth and taketh away, the Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol run that makes up most of August are his three worst tracks.
Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, AJ Allmendinger, Juan Pablo Montoya, Joey Logano, Paul Menard
Mark Martin
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| Say what you will, but it feels like Kasey Kahne is driving for the right reasons in 2011 |
Remember those drivers that could eliminate winless Tony Stewart? Here they are. For the seven drivers that make up 13-20 in the current standings, it's simple, win and your in (for now). Of the seven, So far as stories go, Kasey Kahne and Mark Martin would be the preferable choices for second wild card of the seven. Kahne making the Chase despite being a lame-duck driver for a team sponsor that's leaving the sport would be quite the headline and quite the example of how true professionals are supposed to work (CC: NFL and NFLPA). And of course, Mark Martin, in his last shot to win a Championship after a legendary career; perfect theater. If the question is which driver could actually contend out of this group, Kahne would be the most dangerous though Montoya could make waves in the Chase (accept winning the Championship will require wins, of which Montoya has one for his career.) Finally, giving the credit where it's due, it would be quite a sight to see AJ Allmendinger in the Chase, as he's putting together his best season to date.
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| Brad Keselowski's Coca-Cola 600 win could make all the difference in this year's Chase |
Then there's that one guy who could mess everything up. Speaking strictly in terms of who needs a win, it's Brad Keselowski. Consistency isn't exactly the word you would choose to describe Keselowski's season and he currently sits 23rd in points, 25 points back of Mark Martin in 20th. But, and there's always a but, Keselowski won the Coca-Cola 600. With another win not only could Keselowski close the gap on the Chase qualification range, but if he is scored in 20th place by one point on Sunday with two wins to his credit, he is automatically qualified for the Chase. Keselowski is going to be dancing around this line for the next seven weeks as he is neither decidedly good or bad at any of the upcoming tracks, accept for Atlanta on September 4th, which is Keslowski's worst track, statistically. As important as those stats are, there's another wrinkle in this story. If you have watched Keselowski run in the Nationwide and Cup series then you know that somehow Brad has learned how to run a fuel mileage race. He has pulled off feats on fuel milage this season that surpass amazing and that border on the mystical. Five of the next seven could easily come down to fuel milage and that gives Keselowski an advantage the stats simply can't factor in. When it gets down to it, Keselowski will certainly be the wild card coming down the stretch to the Chase, the question is if his wild card will be the one that enters him in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
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