Football Friday: Sell High?

Association Football - Transfer Rumors: Arsenal

On football Friday it might be time to come to a harsh reality for Arsenal supporters. Robin Van Persie is on his way out of town. As an Arsenal supporter myself I hope I am wrong. However, as I have been following the Arsenal transfer news I've noticed a startling trend. 

Robin Van Persie was one of the few
things Gunners fans could consistently
cheer about last season

Arsenal had several glaring issues last season. The chiefest among these was a sieve-backline consisting of chronic underachievers Thomas Vermaelen and Per Mertesacker (in their defense they were both injured last season). That solid core is complemented by Laurent Koscielny who is perhaps the most impressive player in Europe on the basis that he's somehow been able to hold down a steady job playing football despite of the collection of poor form he calls a "career" (of course in a interview with Arsenal brass Koscielny could just say, "Hey, I'm not Sébastien Squillaci!"). The point is, the most obvious problem to anyone who watched Arsenal's bipolar campaign of 2011-2012 was its serious need of an improved defense. 

Currently, Arsenal lead the chase
for sought-after striker Olivier Giroud

As Arsenal has went into this off-season with strengthening the defense as a top priority they have made one signing, Lukas Podolski and are being heavily linked with France and Montpellier striker Olivier Giroud. The simple question needs to be, why are Arsenal's two main targets strikers? Before you relegate to being a crazy conspiracy theorist, let me say I do understand Arsenal need another goalscorer. Van Persie scored 37 goals across all competitions for Arsenal last season but the closest scorer after him Theo Walcott with 11. That gap is far too large for consistent form, Arsenal need to invest in another steady source of goals. However, Arsenal is yet to even be linked with solid defender or even a more consistent midfielder. Why should this be? Perhaps someone in charge at Arsenal knows that keeping van Persie around is leaning toward not happening. Two recent news stories have added to my suspicions. Peter Hill-Wood recently said that if someone comes to break the bank for Robin Arsenal won't be able to stay in the bidding. Moreover, van Persie's father Bob van Persie, recently said it would be "impossible" for Robin to move to Manchester City because he would never play for another Premier League club besides Arsenal. He did however say that Real Madrid, "would be a good option" while also admitting, "they are not so much a team as a collection of star names, so he wouldn't really fit in there either."

Peter Hill-Wood can't make
any promises about
 Robin Van Persie

The strange new proposal I've come to is that, perhaps it would be best to let van Persie leave....now that you've recovered from passing out, let's think about these stats. van Persie did indeed lead Arsenal with 37 goals last season but lest we forget, it wasn't that long ago that Robin was an underachiever with knees made of glass. The only reason van Persie had such a great season is that he stayed healthy. At twenty-eight, there is no guarantee that he will stay healthy for long at all. The number one rule in business is to sell high and van Persie's stock will never get higher than it is right now. What if Arsenal were able to move van Persie to Real Madrid for a massive transfer fee? One that could produce the consistency across the pitch the desperately need. Or, even more intriguing, what if Arsenal could turn van Persie into a player-for-player move for someone like Karim Benzema? I know it sounds outlandish, but what is Madrid going to do with Christiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Robin Van Persie. You realistically think there's not going to be an odd-man out in that rotation? (Mostly because European teams are apparently incapable of playing with more than two forwards at a time)

Could selling van Persie net Arsenal
someone like Karim Benzema?

It's clear Arsenal can't keep up with the spending of the Manchester clubs and perhaps not even Chelsea, the thing to do at this crossroads is to figure out how to get the most value out of the current roster and part of that might be moving the superstar. Don't get me wrong, I love Robin Van Persie and I love his commitment to Arsenal but if the Gunners want to actually contend for silver wear anytime soon, this might be the move they need to make.

More to come,

XoXo

-Joshua

Dwayne Wade Doesn't Own a Time Machine

Basketball - NBA Finals, Game 1
One game is in the books of the NBA Finals and the Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a 1-0 lead in the best of seven series. This wasn't a huge surprise, anyone paying attention should have expected the Thunder to win last night, after the Heat enduring a grueling seven game series with Boston. The narrative of fatigue fit as the Heat lead by as much as 13 but were visibly drained in the 4th quarter and were simply unable to keep up with the young legs of OKC. Here are some take aways from game one.


LeBron James must guard Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant won round one of the
heavyweight fight of the year

Nothing was more apparent last night than the fact that LeBron James is the only player on the Miami Heat who can contain Kevin Durant. Everyone gave valiant efforts in defending the league's scoring champion, but only Lebron has the size, strength and speed to contain Durant. This is especially true in the fourth quarter. Fatigue was certainly a factor last night, but Durant was blowing past everyone in a red jersey during the entire fourth quarter. I understand the strategy of rotating different players onto Durant to conserve James' energy, but he has to be all over him in the closing moments.

Wade scored 19 points and appeared
off his game

Dwayne Wade doesn't own a time machine
The Dwayne Wade of 2006 is long gone. Of course Wade is still a top-20 player in the league, but he's clearly hiding an injury and trying to play through it (at least he had better be or he is struggling severely). The problem is Wade could very well be the tipping point in this series. LeBron is going to draw tons of defensive attention and Wade is going to have to take advantage; it just doesn't look like he can. Hopefully last night Wade mailed it in for the sake of being as close to 100% as he can be for game two or the Heat could be in serious trouble.

The Thunder were +13 with Nick Collison
on the floor and he was effective in
 pestering the Miami offense 

The Thunder are a far more complete team than the Heat
There was plenty to be impressed with watching Oklahoma City play last night, but the subtle take away is the completeness of the team. Every player that came on to the floor contributed in some capacity (Perkins aside), particularly Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. When you are seeing contributions from those guys you know your team is deep and depth a problem the Miami Heat have and cannot fix.


Chris Bosh must be more involved

Chris Bosh had 10 points and
5 rebounds in 34 minutes of work

It's as simple as that. The time for protecting the third member of the big three from injury is over, he has to play. With DWade so off his game Chris Bosh has to step up in a big way. Miami would be well served to spend some possessions pounding the ball to Bosh low and see if they can't influence OKC's defense to cheat towards the post. If they could accomplish that it would open driving lanes for LeBron and create open jump shots. It's no guarantee that this strategy will work, but it's better than throwing up threes all night long.


What Oklahoma City players are saying today: "They can't stop us! We hurt them too many ways, Wade is hurt and their bench is terrible! We came back from thirteen down and our arena is a madhouse! If we stay focused we could sweep this team!"


What Miami Heat players are saying today: "No excuses for last night, we were up by thirteen. We showed in the first half we can play with them, we just ran out of gas from the travel and the Celtics series. We just have to adjust to their playing style, which is way different from Boston's, and we'll be right back in this."


In case you missed it the official Pritchard Report prediction for this series was Miami in 7 games. The predicted winners broke down this way:
Game 1: Oklahoma City
Game 2: Miami
Game 3: Miami
Game 4: Oklahoma City
Game 5: Miami
Game 6: Oklahoma City
Game 7: Miami


More to come,
XoXo
-Joshua


Links:
ESPN Stats and Score from Game 1
ESPN Finals Central

Credit Where it's Due...

Major League Baseball
My apologies for my long absence.


I suppose that's what working on a Master's Thesis does to a person. But now that that terrible chore is complete, it's time to return to the blog.


As I return to the blog I have an observation. It's an observation on the curse of playing in a small market. Well, "curse" might be a strong word. For one fan base the curse is quite a blessing.


Last night the Philadelphia Phillies played the Washington Nationals with Cole Hamels on the hill for Philadelphia. 

Cole Hamels has been great for
the Phillies despite the team
being in last place

Plenty of attention was paid to the game because of the possibility of repercussions from the Hamels vs. Harper incident from a few weeks ago. Anyone who tuned in for a chance at repercussions instead was treated to a terrific pitching display. Hamels was great. He went eight innings, gave up four hits, zero runs, walked three and struck out eight.


An accumulation of outings like this has garnered a lot of attention for Cole Hamels and he has the numbers to back it up. Today ESPN radio was referring to Hamels as one of, if not the, best pitcher in MLB right now. 


This is what happens when you play in a small market. If Hamels is the best pitcher in MLB, let's take a look at his numbers against another pitcher's in a blind resume.


Pitcher A: 62.1 IP, 2.17 ERA, 50 H, 15 ER, 13 BB, 66 SO, 1.01 WHIP, 7-1 record.
Pitcher B: 59.1 IP, 1.97 ERA, 55 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 38 SO, 1.13 WHIP, 5-1 record.


Can you guess which pitcher is Cole Hamels? Which pitcher is the best pitcher going in MLB? Maybe you can't really tell the difference. Maybe that's my point.


Pitcher A is Cole Hamels, Pitcher B is Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto.


When I heard Hamels referred to as "the best pitcher in MLB" I, as a true homer, thought, "Hey! Cueto is better than Hamels!" Well, turns out I was close to right. In fact I've found the two are basically indistinguishable. There are so factors that make Hamels appear to be superior. Specifically its his nearly double number of strikeouts with 66 versus Cueto's 38. Plus, Cueto's last two outings have been his worst of the young season whilst Hamels pitched a gem last night (he did give up six hits and three runs against Boston on Friday in a Phillies win). 

As is true of all small market fans,
Reds fans should be happy Cueto's
numbers have not attracted more attention

The major point is, this is a bigger commentary on what it means to play in a small market. I've already admitted to being a Reds homer, but I'd go so far as to say that Cueto was the most underrated pitcher in MLB last season. With Hamels and Cueto more or less indistinguishable on the stat line Hamels is the best pitcher in MLB and Cueto is only known to Reds fans and fantasy baseball players. However, those who would call themselves Reds fans should consider Cueto's no-credit curse as a true blessing. With the big teams, specifically the Yankees and Red Sox struggling, it's good that Cueto has a small market blanket covering his ace stuff. 


The point for Reds fans is that as they've been clamoring for a true Ace for the past three or four seasons is that one may finally appearing right before their eyes.


More to Come,
XoXo
-Joshua