1. Did Oklahoma State do enough to get to the National Championship Game?
No way to be sure about this, the twitter seems to be leaning that way, but we'll have to see. Personally, I think there's too much of what college football is all about ($$) at stake for an LSU-Bama rematch to not happen.
2. Where does TCU finish?
The BCS rules state, that the champion of a non-AQ conference can become an automatic qualifier if:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Here's the issue. In the current (not updated) BCS standings, Boise State is #7. With V.T. and Houston losing they should move up to #5. However, the rule is the champion of the conference, that if you recall a little 36-35 victory is the Horned Frogs of TCU. Currently they sit at #18, but if they move up to #16 then they take the automatic spot and in any simulation would almost certainly drop into the Fiesta Bowl. The if that gets them to #16 is a big if though, Baylor, Michigan and Wisconsin are the three teams ahead of them, all of whom should shift up in the final BCS standings. Michigan State and Georgia should fall down but Clemson is behind TCU in 20th and will certainly rise on winning the ACC, this little rule actually changes a lot of how the BCS bowls will shake out. (For those wondering, TCU will stay well ahead of West Virginia who is #23 and AQs for on tie-breaker for the Big East. They wouldn't even be BCS eligible if it weren't for that fact).
3. How Far Does Virginia Tech Fall?
The BCS rules state that all of the automatic qualifiers must be picked first, that means there will only be one spot left open in the Orange Bowl for who is left if TCU claims the spot mentioned above (see, told you it was important). Currently, Virginia Tech is #5 but will slide after losing to Clemson. That should worry the Hookies because Kansas State is currently #11 but with Oklahoma and Houston losing and a fair presumption that voters will give less consideration to #8 Arkansas because it cannot qualify for the BCS and #7 Boise State (because it isn't an AQ if TCU takes that) K-State could easily rise above VT and take the last BCS spot.
4. How Far Do Houston and Oklahoma Fall?
By all rights Houston should vanish from the final BCS standings, however, at 12-1 and Southern Miss being #24 in the current standings, it's possible they might have a parachute for this free fall. There is essentially a 0% chance they make it to a BCS game, but, where they land could impact how other teams move, particularly pesky TCU.
Oklahoma is in the same situation. Currently at #10, they'll slide...but how far?
Let's shake some scenarios out: (*these are based on my projected and logic-based final BCS projections...because I am using logic they probably will not look like the actual final BCS projections)
Here's some basic information, the selection order is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange and these bowls are under contract to take conference champions like this:
Fiesta - Big 12, Sugar - SEC, Orange - ACC
moreover, in a normal procedure all of the AQ schools must be picked before at-large teams can be, however, if a bowl loses their contracted team to the National Championship game they can pick any AQ or at-large team to fill that spot before any others are filled...but...all of the AQs still have to be selected after that (starting to see what a mess this is?)
Now to those scenarios:
1. If everything goes as planned and Alabama meets LSU in the National Championship Game and TCU does not make it to #16 in the final standings:
Fiesta Bowl: 3. Oklahoma State vs. 1(. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: 5. Stanford vs. 7. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: 10. Clemson vs. 8. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: 4. Oregon vs. 9. Wisconsin
National Championship: 1. LSU vs. 2. Alabama
2. If everything goes as planned and Alabama meets LSU in the National Championship Game and TCU does make it to #16 in the final standings:
Sugar Bowl: 5. Stanford vs. 16 . TCU
Orange Bowl: 10. Clemson vs. 7. Virginia Tech
Rose Bowl: 4. Oregon vs. 9. Wisconsin
National Championship: 1. LSU vs. 2. Alabama
(this actually gives us a rematch of LSU, Alabama and the third game between Clemson and VT)
3. If Oklahoma State has won over enough voters to get to the National Championship Game and TCU does not make it to #16
Fiesta Bowl: 5. Stanford vs. 19. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: 3. Alabama vs. 7. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: 10. Clemson vs. 8. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: 4. Oregon vs. 9. Wisconsin
National Championship: 1. LSU vs. 2. Oklahoma State
4. If Oklahoma State has won over enough voters to get to the National Championship Game and TCU does make it to #16
Fiesta Bowl: 5. Stanford vs. 17. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: 3. Alabama vs. 16. TCU
Orange Bowl: 10. Clemson vs. 7. Virginia Tech
Rose Bowl: 4. Oregon vs. 9. Wisconsin
National Championship: 1. LSU vs. 2. Oklahoma State
Other Issues: Of course there are more problems than just this. All four of my projections leave Boise State out of the BCS though I project them to finish at #6. That's a high ranking, but with 11-2 Virginia Tech and 10-2 Kanas State on the table, I just don't see any bowl selecting Boise State even though they are at 10-1, especially if TCU gets the no-AQ conference auto-bid.
What makes this even hairier is that half of the projections have not just a rematch, but the third game of the year between Clemson and Virginia Tech. There is a catch-all stipulation on the books that says the Bowls can shift participants around for a bunch of reasons including,
"whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on ESPN and the bowls" (which of course is translated $$)
A third game in a row gives plenty of reason to shift Virginia Tech out of this game, but I don't feel like the Orange Bowl would be motivated to okay the shift for West Virginia or TCU. If they feel a third game could negatively impact the reception of their Bowl, they could skip VT and select 8. Kansas State or even 13. Michigan to fill the void (I doubt they would go the Michigan route and forego 10-2 Kansas State, but Michigan is a bigger school that travels well and that equals, you guessed it, $$).
So, as it turns out, all we know for sure is that the Rose Bowl will be Pac-12 Champion Oregon against Big Ten Champion Wisconsin, at least something in college football works out the way it's supposed to.
See you soon?
XoXo
-Joshua
In case you're really curious, here are my projected final BCS standings from which I was working.
[TCU in at #16]
1. LSU
2. Bama
3. Ok State
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Boise State
7. V.T.
8. Kansas State
9. Wisconsin
10. Clemson
11. Arkansas
12. South Carolina
13. Michigan
14. Michigan State
15. Oklahoma
16. TCU
17. Georgia
18. WVU?
[TCU out]
1. LSU
2. Bama
3. Ok State
4. Oregon
5. Stanford
6. Boise State
7. V.T.
8. Kansas State
9. Wisconsin
10. Clemson
11. Arkansas
12. South Carolina
13. Michigan
14. Houston
15. Michigan State
16. Oklahoma
17. Georgia
18. TCU
19. WVU
-I think these are sound predictions, I think the new conference champions really move up, hence Clemson at 10. For both you just flip OkState and Bama if you think they need to be. You'll notice in TCU out version, it is Houston not falling out of the BCS that pushes TCU down to far to make it. I like the first list the best, I don't think Houston is still ranked in the top 20 if at all tomorrow night. I also see the voters letting Arkansas and South Carolina slip because they cannot make a BCS game because two SEC teams are already selected. My logic is, why vote for teams that have no bearing on the final standing?
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