Friday, June 15, 2012

Football Friday: Sell High?

Association Football - Transfer Rumors: Arsenal
On football Friday it might be time to come to a harsh reality for Arsenal supporters. Robin Van Persie is on his way out of town. As an Arsenal supporter myself I hope I am wrong. However, as I have been following the Arsenal transfer news I've noticed a startling trend. 
Robin Van Persie was one of the few
things Gunners fans could consistently
cheer about last season
Arsenal had several glaring issues last season. The chiefest among these was a sieve-backline consisting of chronic underachievers Thomas Vermaelen and Per Mertesacker (in their defense they were both injured last season). That solid core is complemented by Laurent Koscielny who is perhaps the most impressive player in Europe on the basis that he's somehow been able to hold down a steady job playing football despite of the collection of poor form he calls a "career" (of course in a interview with Arsenal brass Koscielny could just say, "Hey, I'm not Sébastien Squillaci!"). The point is, the most obvious problem to anyone who watched Arsenal's bipolar campaign of 2011-2012 was its serious need of an improved defense. 

Currently, Arsenal lead the chase
for sought-after striker Olivier Giroud
As Arsenal has went into this off-season with strengthening the defense as a top priority they have made one signing, Lukas Podolski and are being heavily linked with France and Montpellier striker Olivier Giroud. The simple question needs to be, why are Arsenal's two main targets strikers? Before you relegate to being a crazy conspiracy theorist, let me say I do understand Arsenal need another goalscorer. Van Persie scored 37 goals across all competitions for Arsenal last season but the closest scorer after him Theo Walcott with 11. That gap is far too large for consistent form, Arsenal need to invest in another steady source of goals. However, Arsenal is yet to even be linked with solid defender or even a more consistent midfielder. Why should this be? Perhaps someone in charge at Arsenal knows that keeping van Persie around is leaning toward not happening. Two recent news stories have added to my suspicions. Peter Hill-Wood recently said that if someone comes to break the bank for Robin Arsenal won't be able to stay in the bidding. Moreover, van Persie's father Bob van Persie, recently said it would be "impossible" for Robin to move to Manchester City because he would never play for another Premier League club besides Arsenal. He did however say that Real Madrid, "would be a good option" while also admitting, "they are not so much a team as a collection of star names, so he wouldn't really fit in there either."
Peter Hill-Wood can't make
any promises about
 Robin Van Persie

The strange new proposal I've come to is that, perhaps it would be best to let van Persie leave....now that you've recovered from passing out, let's think about these stats. van Persie did indeed lead Arsenal with 37 goals last season but lest we forget, it wasn't that long ago that Robin was an underachiever with knees made of glass. The only reason van Persie had such a great season is that he stayed healthy. At twenty-eight, there is no guarantee that he will stay healthy for long at all. The number one rule in business is to sell high and van Persie's stock will never get higher than it is right now. What if Arsenal were able to move van Persie to Real Madrid for a massive transfer fee? One that could produce the consistency across the pitch the desperately need. Or, even more intriguing, what if Arsenal could turn van Persie into a player-for-player move for someone like Karim Benzema? I know it sounds outlandish, but what is Madrid going to do with Christiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Robin Van Persie. You realistically think there's not going to be an odd-man out in that rotation? (Mostly because European teams are apparently incapable of playing with more than two forwards at a time)
Could selling van Persie net Arsenal
someone like Karim Benzema?
It's clear Arsenal can't keep up with the spending of the Manchester clubs and perhaps not even Chelsea, the thing to do at this crossroads is to figure out how to get the most value out of the current roster and part of that might be moving the superstar. Don't get me wrong, I love Robin Van Persie and I love his commitment to Arsenal but if the Gunners want to actually contend for silver wear anytime soon, this might be the move they need to make.

More to come,
XoXo
-Joshua

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Dwayne Wade Doesn't Own a Time Machine

Basketball - NBA Finals, Game 1
One game is in the books of the NBA Finals and the Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a 1-0 lead in the best of seven series. This wasn't a huge surprise, anyone paying attention should have expected the Thunder to win last night, after the Heat enduring a grueling seven game series with Boston. The narrative of fatigue fit as the Heat lead by as much as 13 but were visibly drained in the 4th quarter and were simply unable to keep up with the young legs of OKC. Here are some take aways from game one.


LeBron James must guard Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant won round one of the
heavyweight fight of the year
Nothing was more apparent last night than the fact that LeBron James is the only player on the Miami Heat who can contain Kevin Durant. Everyone gave valiant efforts in defending the league's scoring champion, but only Lebron has the size, strength and speed to contain Durant. This is especially true in the fourth quarter. Fatigue was certainly a factor last night, but Durant was blowing past everyone in a red jersey during the entire fourth quarter. I understand the strategy of rotating different players onto Durant to conserve James' energy, but he has to be all over him in the closing moments.


Wade scored 19 points and appeared
off his game
Dwayne Wade doesn't own a time machine
The Dwayne Wade of 2006 is long gone. Of course Wade is still a top-20 player in the league, but he's clearly hiding an injury and trying to play through it (at least he had better be or he is struggling severely). The problem is Wade could very well be the tipping point in this series. LeBron is going to draw tons of defensive attention and Wade is going to have to take advantage; it just doesn't look like he can. Hopefully last night Wade mailed it in for the sake of being as close to 100% as he can be for game two or the Heat could be in serious trouble.


The Thunder were +13 with Nick Collison
on the floor and he was effective in
 pestering the Miami offense 
The Thunder are a far more complete team than the Heat
There was plenty to be impressed with watching Oklahoma City play last night, but the subtle take away is the completeness of the team. Every player that came on to the floor contributed in some capacity (Perkins aside), particularly Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. When you are seeing contributions from those guys you know your team is deep and depth a problem the Miami Heat have and cannot fix.


Chris Bosh must be more involved
Chris Bosh had 10 points and
5 rebounds in 34 minutes of work
It's as simple as that. The time for protecting the third member of the big three from injury is over, he has to play. With DWade so off his game Chris Bosh has to step up in a big way. Miami would be well served to spend some possessions pounding the ball to Bosh low and see if they can't influence OKC's defense to cheat towards the post. If they could accomplish that it would open driving lanes for LeBron and create open jump shots. It's no guarantee that this strategy will work, but it's better than throwing up threes all night long.


What Oklahoma City players are saying today: "They can't stop us! We hurt them too many ways, Wade is hurt and their bench is terrible! We came back from thirteen down and our arena is a madhouse! If we stay focused we could sweep this team!"


What Miami Heat players are saying today: "No excuses for last night, we were up by thirteen. We showed in the first half we can play with them, we just ran out of gas from the travel and the Celtics series. We just have to adjust to their playing style, which is way different from Boston's, and we'll be right back in this."


In case you missed it the official Pritchard Report prediction for this series was Miami in 7 games. The predicted winners broke down this way:
Game 1: Oklahoma City
Game 2: Miami
Game 3: Miami
Game 4: Oklahoma City
Game 5: Miami
Game 6: Oklahoma City
Game 7: Miami


More to come,
XoXo
-Joshua


Links:
ESPN Stats and Score from Game 1
ESPN Finals Central